Sweden’s high covid death toll could be linked to mild flu seasons

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, has partly blamed the country’s high covid death toll on mild flu outbreaks in recent winters. When many people die of the flu in the winter, fewer die in heat waves the following summer. In this case, it was covid that caused many to die. What has now been seen is that the countries that have had a fairly low mortality for influenza in the last two, three years, such as Sweden, also have a very high excess mortality in covid.

Those which had a high flu mortality rate, such as Norway, during the last two winters, have fairly low covid mortality. The same trend has been seen in several countries. This may not be the whole explanation but part of it. Much attention has been paid to Sweden during the covid pandemic because of its decision to not completely lock down its public life and economy.

Most of Europe did so as covid cases surged. Tegnell’s public health agency instead recommended mostly voluntary measures, such as good hygiene, social distancing guidelines, and working from home if possible. Bars, restaurants, most schools and businesses remained opened, however, and face masks are not widely worn. Sweden did ban mass gatherings and visits to elderly care homes, however, although this latter restriction is due to be lifted soon despite a high death toll from covid being seen in such institutions.

Sweden’s no-lockdown policy was seen by Tegnell as a way to achieve a degree of herd immunity in the population.

Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. With no vaccine available, however, scientists have been looking closely at whether exposure to and recovery from covid leads to long-term immunity. Pursuing herd immunity has proved controversial in Sweden because allowing the virus to spread has put vulnerable groups such as the elderly and people with existing health conditions at a greater risk of becoming seriously ill and dying.

In July 2020, WHO officials warned that patients who recover from covid may be able to get it again, saying that some studies suggest immunity may wane after a few months. Sweden has reported a higher number of infections and deaths than its neighbors, although, with around 10 million people, it has roughly double the population of its neighbors Denmark, Finland, and Norway. Sweden has recorded almost 90,000 covid cases and 5,870 deaths.

Denmark, by contrast, has recorded under 25,000 covid cases and 641 deaths. Unlike major European economies France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, which are seeing covid cases rise again in what is being described as a second wave of the pandemic, Sweden was initially thought to be avoiding a resurgence. However, outbreaks among sports teams have emerged, and rising cases in the capital Stockholm mean the city could now be headed for more restrictions.

Stockholm has seen a clear increase, across all age groups. An uptrend in the Stockholm region could lead to a very serious situation again.